The forecast of one of the three largest credit rating agencies Fitch Ratings is stable for Slovenia! This is according to the last prognosis in July. The forecast predicts only a slight increase in unemployment and almost 5% growth next year!
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The stable prognosis includes the expected level of “resilience”
As the credit rating agency Moody’s estimated in June, the credit rating agency Fitch sees the level of resistance in the Slovenian economy against the economic consequences of the epidemic. According to the agency, this can be attributed to the reduction of external and financial imbalances in recent years and the historical tendency of fiscal prudence.
Despite the projected 7.1% decrease in GDP in 2020, this estimate already includes the sum of the consequences of the demand and supply shocks and the effects of the economic downturn in March. A resurgence of activities is also planned – in the second half of the year.
The stable prognosis does not expect deterioration and unemployment. Fitch’s forecast takes into account the relatively short period of economic closure and the wide range of support programs. Both prevent further damage to the labor market and the financial condition of companies. Fitch predicts a moderate increase in registered unemployment from 4.5% in 2019 to 6.8% in 2020. But this is significantly less than unemployment during the 2013 crisis.
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In 2021, we expect almost 5% of stable GDP growth!
The medium-term forecast of the credit rating forecast predicts 4.9% growth in 2021 and then a stable growth of 3.3% in 2022. This forecast relies largely on a gradual recovery in external demand, especially from the EU. Among other factors, Fitch’s forecast relies on the net effects of structural changes in supply chains and high levels of investment in the medium term, as long as EU structural reforms and initiatives are implemented.
According to Fitch, Slovenia’s stable assessment is supported by a high level of governance, development indicators and a stable policy framework.
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